Technological advances, environmental concern, and demand for higher levels of indoor comfort and wellbeing are combining to accelerate change across the sector.
In our latest blog on key developments in HVACR, we look at the eight trends shaping the HVACR industry’s future in 2025 and beyond.
1. Smarter HVACR systems
Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the Internet of Things (IoT) are making HVACR systems more intelligent and efficient. Modern HVACR units can be connected to the cloud and give operators and owners insights about how the system is performing.
We already see thermostats that learn a user’s behaviour and systems that can be controlled remotely via smartphones, but with the continued enhancement of AI we expect HVACR systems will get ever smarter. Some studies even suggest that artificial intelligence could reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions by approximately 8% to 19% in 2050.
2. Tightening F-Gas regulations
Environmental concerns and tougher regulations are driving the HVACR industry toward more sustainable practices. Since 1st January 2015, when the EU implemented the F-Gas (Fluorinated greenhouse gases) regulations and its legally binding targets of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, high Global Warming Potential (GWP) refrigerants are being phased out.
The quota system used to reduce hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) sets a steep reduction in the amounts that importers and producers may place on the EU market, and by 2050, HFCs will be completely banned in the EU.
Following Brexit, the revised EU F-Gas regulations, which came into force in February 2024, do not apply to the UK. The UK has retained its own F-Gas regulation, which aligns with the earlier EU phase-down schedule, and has its own quota system for high GWP refrigerants.
A key milestone came into effect earlier this year (1st January 2025) when the UK banned the sale of R410A single split AC units as well as banning virgin HFCs with a GWP more than 2500 for servicing refrigeration equipment. In 2026, this ban will extend to virgin HFCs with a GWP more than 2500 for servicing air conditioning and heat pump equipment.
The UK government is currently reviewing its F-Gas policy and whether to align with the accelerated phase-down introduced in the revised EU regulation. Looking further ahead to 2030, the European Commission is set to publish a report on the effects of regulation.
3. The decarbonisation race
While decarbonisation is on the agenda for many industries, it seems most pressing in the HVACR sector. Buildings account for just over a third of global energy-related carbon emissions because of things like heating and cooling, which together account for 40-65% of energy used in buildings. In the case of supermarkets, this rises to as much as 65–85% of total store energy consumption due to the refrigeration load.
Over the course of 2025 and right up until 2050, the decarbonisation race will intensify, and HVACR manufacturers will have a central role to play.
Transitioning away from fossil fuel-based heating systems toward cleaner, electric alternatives, such as heat pumps, is seen as one of the key ways the UK will meet its environmental goals, as outlined in the government’s Heat and Building Strategy.
Heat pumps have a proven track record when it comes to helping decarbonise domestic heating – even in some of the coldest countries in Europe.
For all new homes being built in 2025 and beyond, compliance with the Future Homes Standard (FHS) is mandatory. FHS aims for new homes to produce 75-80% less carbon emissions (compared to homes built under the previous Building Regulations) by improving heating, hot water systems and reducing heat waste.
Initiatives such as the UK government’s Clean Heat Market Mechanism (CHMM), set to take effect from 1st April 2025, are designed to boost heat pump adoption. Under this initiative, boiler manufacturers will need to ensure at least 6% of their total sales come from heat pumps in 2025-2026, with expectations for this quota to increase in subsequent years.
Additionally, the Boiler Upgrade Scheme (BUS) offers homeowners a grant of up to £7,500 towards the installation of a heat pump. Government initiatives are seen as a key motivator in increasing the number of heat pump installations. Latest figures from the European Heat Pump Association show that heat pump sales across Europe actually went down in 2024, with one reason thought to be the lack of or withdrawal of government support. However, the UK bucked the trend, with a 63% growth.
Read more about the CHMM and BUS in one of our recent blogs ‘Will the UK Boiler Tax Drive Heat Pump Adoption and Help Achieve Net Zero?’.
4. Heat networks
Heat networks will be another key topic in 2025. There are approximately 14,000 heat networks that serve 492,000 connections across the UK. These networks provide about 2-3% of the UK’s heat, but the Climate Change Committee suggests that around 18% of UK heat could come from heat networks by 2050.
There are a few reasons why this is a hot topic this year. Firstly, heat networks are part of the decarbonisation discussion, and secondly (at time of writing), we’re about to see the imminent introduction of the Heat Network Technical Assurance Scheme (HNTAS). These new regulations will ensure that heat networks across the country meet minimum performance and reliability criteria as well as provide fairer and more transparent billing for end users.
Coupled with these new regulations, the government will continue to share out the £80million funding set aside to upgrade existing networks through the Heat Network Efficiency Scheme.
5. Indoor Air Quality
With growing evidence linking poor indoor air quality (IAQ) to significant health, economic and environmental consequences, we’re sure to see more discussions around this topic in 2025. At the start of the year, we saw IAQ experts in the UK calling for enforceable standards to safeguard public health and improve building performance.
Comprehensive regulations would establish enforceable IAQ thresholds, such as limits on CO2 and particulate matter (PM) levels and ensure ventilation systems operate effectively based on occupancy and building type.
Once again, HVACR manufacturers have an important role to play here by offering solutions that offer advanced air purification, humidity control and ventilation. Do you think we’ll see enforceable IAQ thresholds being introduced as legislation by UK government any time soon?
6. Bridging the HVACR skills gap
The HVACR industry, like many others, is facing a significant skills gap. Unless a new crop of talent is recruited and nurtured, the industry is at risk of losing a whole wealth of knowledge and skills when current engineers and technicians retire.
Recent figures indicate that occupations in the HVACR sector, such as air-conditioning and refrigeration installers are in elevated demand, while electrical engineers and electrical service and maintenance mechanics are in critical demand.
It’s not just a numbers shortage either. There is also a whole load of training that needs to take place in order to keep pace with the HVACR technological advancements. Driven by regulations, like F-Gas, manufacturers are producing HVACR technology that aims to reduce their impact on the environment. Some of the newest heat pumps in residential and commercial buildings now use natural refrigerants, like R-290.
We expect to see manufacturers and educational bodies creating more training courses to upskill existing engineers and teach new technicians about the safe handling and installation of equipment using R-290.
7. Retrofitting HVACR
Almost 40% of homes in the UK that were built before 1946, use carbon intensive heating and are not as energy efficient as they could be. The same is true for many commercial buildings in the country.
Despite these inefficiencies, knocking these buildings down and starting again isn’t the answer, simply because that is far too expensive and probably rather damaging to the environment when you consider the entire construction process.
Given that approximately 80% of the UK’s current building stock will still be in use by 2050, there is a huge opportunity to update, improve and innovate current buildings.
With businesses wanting and needing to be more efficient in their energy use and lower carbon emissions, retrofitting and modernising existing heating and cooling systems will feature a lot in 2025 and beyond.
8. HVACR marketing and communications
The one thing that ties all of these trends together is the need to educate and raise awareness. The industry needs a collective push to help achieve net zero goals by 2050 – because the whole is always greater than the sum of its parts.
Well targeted PR and content marketing tactics like thought leadership articles and case studies are an effective way to explain and educate readers about why, how and what HVACR businesses are doing to lower emissions, enhance IAQ, and comply with stricter regulations. Only then, can they begin to inspire action so targets become achievable.
If you need some help creating compelling content that resonates with your audience, then please reach out to us. We’d love to help you.
