The HVACR sector is evolving fast. Faced with the pressures of meeting net zero goals and managing an ageing workforce, businesses must balance innovation with experience, regulation with practicality and long-term planning with day-to-day delivery.
To get a clearer picture of the industry’s future, we put three key questions to some of our clients working at the heart of the HVACR world. We asked them what they’d change, what developments aren’t getting the attention they deserve and what they see when they look 10 years ahead.
We hear from:
- Darrel Birkett, Managing Director of air conditioning specialist Cool Designs Ltd.
- Andrew Bailey, PRG’s HVACR consultant who spent almost 18 years as editor of Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Magazine.
- Kevin Glass, Managing Director of BITZER UK, who has a wealth of knowledge having been in the refrigeration industry for almost 40 years.
- Neil Hitching is Carrier Commercial HVAC’s UK Marketing Director and has worked in the industry for over 30 years.
- Graham Barker is the Residential Sales Director at Riello Burners UK and has built his expertise and knowledge of burners over the last 30 years.
Their responses reveal not only what’s changing in the industry, but what’s at stake if it doesn’t.
What one thing would you change to improve the HVACR sector?
Darrel Birkett
“Training and the legislation around who can handle and install products. We need to encourage new engineers and should be helping to fund training for young people. Currently, it’s easy for anyone to buy and install products, which leads to a drop in quality of the installation. That then leads to people thinking the products are to blame.”
Andrew Bailey
“We need a clear, long-term roadmap from government on future regulations and funding to meet net zero targets. Right now, initiatives often feel piecemeal and disconnected. A joined-up strategy, backed by firm commitments through to 2050, would be a game-changer for the HVACR industry and end users. It would give businesses the confidence to invest, unlock innovation and support long-term planning around emerging technologies and infrastructure.”
Kevin Glass
“The industry needs to bring in younger people because the existing knowledge is with an increasingly older population of experienced engineers. To take advantage of this experience, we need new blood to come and learn from these people while they’re still in the role. The sort of knowledge these people have is based around the fundamentals of the industry which could be lost in the new age of AI-directed solutions. If young engineers don’t know the fundamentals, how do they know if AI is telling them the correct information?”
Neil Hitching
“I’d have closer alignment between regulation policy and the reality of what actual happens in the industry. Refrigerant development is a prime example where we have a push to go to totally natural refrigerants, but the reality is that a one-size-fits-all refrigerant does not exist at the moment.”
Graham Barker
“I think I’d try and improve the relationships with UK Government / civil service. There’s a lot that the industry can do to help the Government and policy makers in terms of achieving goals, but there needs to be a collaborative approach.”
What’s one recent change in the HVACR sector that you think more people should be talking about?
Darrel Birkett
“I think there’s too much disbelief around heat pump technology from end users. There needs to be more education for the public to showcase what can be gained from embracing the technology.”
Andrew Bailey
“The conversation needs to shift towards total building energy solutions, for both homes and businesses. Too often, public debate focuses on the pros and cons of individual technologies, like heat pumps. But delivering truly comfortable, reliable and net-zero buildings depends on an integrated system: heat pumps, solar PV, battery storage, inverters, EV charging and more. There’s no silver bullet. Success lies in how these elements work together. We should be talking less about isolated installations and more about whole-system energy strategies.”
Kevin Glass
“I think we should be talking more about the move to refrigerants that have some degree of flammability and the knowledge that’s needed to use them. There seems to be a degree of blissful ignorance from companies about the implications and legal obligations of equipment with these refrigerants inside. There also needs to be conversations about the training requirement needed to work with this equipment. It seems to be treated as an unpopular extra expense whereas in reality it should be accepted as an improvement in the technical abilities, and that’s a good thing.”
Neil Hitching
“Great progress has been made over the past few years to reduce carbon footprints with new innovations like heat pumps. I think we should be celebrating and demonstrating the progress that’s been made. Yes we have a long way to go, but we are further on than where we were 3-5 years ago.”
Graham Barker
“Renewable liquid fuels. The ‘off-grid’ heating sector has been working on various projects trailing a renewable heating liquid – Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO) – and it has been proven to be an almost ‘drop in’ replacement for current fossil fuel oils and can offer approx. 88% carbon savings (when compared to current fossil fuel oils). Industry is ready to introduce this renewable liquid but is facing resistance from UK Government as it continues its push of electrification. But that isn’t a practical or cost-effective solution for many off-grid homes.”
What do you think the HVACR sector will look like in 10 years’ time?
Darrel Birkett
“Over the next decade, we’ll have a lot of expertise retiring, and currently there is not enough joining. It’s a tricky time because I expect we’ll see legislation being tightened around the introduction of new refrigerants. We have some excellent installation contractors across the country, and they should be our leading light. I’d say we’re at a fork in the road and the industry needs to decide what path to take. Therein lies our future.”
Andrew Bailey
“In 10 years, the HVACR sector will be smarter, more integrated and central to the global drive for net zero. Connected systems that actively manage and optimise energy use across buildings will be the norm, coordinating heating and cooling, on-site power generation and storage and demand response. Engineers and installers will need to be multi-skilled, confident with digital platforms, data analytics and whole-building systems. Regulations and performance standards will raise the bar, making high performance and low emissions the default. Those who embrace collaboration, innovation and whole-system thinking now will be the ones leading the industry in this new era.”
Kevin Glass
“I see more concentration on AI solutions – as long as the knowledge can be taught to the machine. But as I mentioned, that could lead to a reduction in the knowledge of the technical side of the industry because of it. There will be less usage of man-made refrigerants and an increase of “natural” solutions along with a greater use of heat pumps in many areas of life.
“A fear of the future for me is that there could very well be a deeper skills gap in engineering industries where the human is still needed to drive the spanners and screwdrivers to achieve what the “machine” deems to be required.”
Neil Hitching
“I’m confident the HVACR sector will have made further in roads to supporting decarbonisation and I’m sure we’ll see developments with refrigerants, like the wider use of natural refrigerants. The use of AI technologies will have increased to the support the remote monitoring and analysis of equipment which will support the drive for more energy efficient systems.
“Other things that we will still need to consider are 80% of the buildings we use today will still be in use by 2050[1]. 87% of improved building performance will come from existing buildings, so there will be lots of opportunities to support the modernisation and replacement of existing equipment.”
Graham Barker
“I think there will be a mix of technologies driving towards our goal of net zero. I believe this cannot be achieved solely by electrification and heat pumps, and we’ll continue to see boilers being installed. However, there will hopefully be projects being initiated to blend current fossil fuels (natural gas and liquid fuels) with renewable fuels such as Hydrogen and / or Bio Methane for gas appliances and HVO for liquid fuelled appliances.”
It’s time to invest in skills and integration
Despite approaching the challenges from different angles, our five contributors acknowledge a common concern: the HVACR industry is facing a serious and growing skills gap. Darrel and Kevin warn of experience being lost as seasoned engineers retire. Andrew highlights the need for a new generation of multi-skilled, tech-savvy professionals. Neil adds that unless regulation is better aligned with industry realities, progress could be hampered, particularly around refrigerants and retrofit potential. And across the board, there’s a belief that better training, clearer standards and long-term planning are essential to building a future-ready workforce.
But technical skills aren’t the only missing piece. Graham points to a pressing need to improve collaboration with government and the civil service. As the HVACR industry works on innovative, practical solutions to cut emissions, such as Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO) for off-grid homes, it’s often met with resistance from policymakers. This disconnect risks delaying the rollout of technologies that are already proven and could contribute meaningfully to net zero.
There’s also clear consensus that fragmented thinking must give way to whole-system strategies. Whether it’s Andrew’s call for integrated building energy solutions, Neil’s emphasis on modernising existing stock or Darrel’s and Kevin’s push for better public education and training, it’s evident that progress depends on a joined-up approach. That includes government, manufacturers, engineers and end users alike.
The other thing that stood out was that heat pumps, AI and natural refrigerants are no longer future concepts. They’re here and being widely used today. But without better alignment between policy and practice, and without serious investment in both people and education, the HVACR sector risks missing its moment.
The future of HVACR will be smarter, more connected and more sustainable. But there is work to be done to continue raising awareness and get these key messages heard by those who can make change happen.
[1] Source: Building the Case for Net Zero, Retrofitting Office Buildings – UKGBC January 2024
